This could be Democratic year for 3rd District

Published May 25th, 2008 in The Star-Ledger
By: Joe Donahue

For decades, New Jersey Democrats have had very little chance of winning the 3rd District congressional seat.

Until now.

Several developments have handed Democrats their best opportunity in years to seize the district.

Most important, longtime GOP incumbent Jim Saxton, who has held the seat since 1984, decided not to run again.

Democrats caught another break when popular Republicans like state Sens. Diane Allen (R-Burlington) and Chris Connors (R-Ocean) took a pass.

Chris Myers of Medford, John Kelly of Eagleswood Township and Justin Michael Murphy of Tabernacle are competing for the GOP nomination.

The Democratic candidate -- veteran state Sen. John Adler (D-Camden) -- faces no primary challenger and is better known than his would-be Republican adversaries.

All this in a year when discontent over Bush administration policies and the economy have Republicans worrying about losing Congressional seats nationwide this fall.

The Cook Political Report, a Washington, D.C. newsletter and web site, lists the 3rd District, a longtime Republican bastion, as a toss up this fall.

The vast district, stretching across south-central New Jersey from the Delaware to the Atlantic, encompasses Philadelphia-area suburbs, wide stretches of undeveloped Pinelands and Shore-area retirement communities.

Much of the district is in areas of Ocean and Burlington counties where Republicans traditionally have been favored, but it also includes heavily Democratic Cherry Hill, Adler's hometown.

Saxton announced last November that he was not running again after disclosing that he was suffering from prostate cancer and sciatica.

Myers, a Lockheed Martin vice president, Medford's mayor and a former U.S. Navy officer, is Saxton's preferred successor and has the organizational line in Camden County. The Ocean County GOP is backing Kelly, a freeholder. Murphy is a former Tabernacle Committeeman who is a lawyer and business consultant.

In a sign Myers and Kelly consider themselves the front-runners, both have traded campaign shots almost on a daily basis. Myers has taken aim at Kelly's government jobs and health benefits. Kelly has responded by attacking the conservative credentials of his rival, raising questions about his job with a defense contracting firm, and criticizing his attendance record as mayor at council meetings.

Whoever wins next month, the fall campaign is likely to be a real dogfight because Adler is running in a historically Republican district, said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The Democrat is buoyed by advantages in fund-raising, name recognition and national voting trends that favor Democratic candidates. Republicans were rocked this month when three Democrats won special elections in GOP-favored districts in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi.

"Everything is lining up to be a Democratic year. The focus is on the economy," Murray said. "Republicans have been dropping like flies across the country."

Center for Responsive Politics shows he leads all contenders with $1 million cash in the bank -- more than the combined reserves of the three Republican primary contenders. Congressional Quarterly earlier this month said Adler has more money than any candidate for an open congressional seat in the nation.

Adler is an attorney who chairs the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee. He sponsored the 2006 law that prohibited smoking tobacco in indoor public places and workplaces, and has been an advocate of other environmental and pro-consumer legislation since he was elected to the Senate in 1991.

Republicans are likely to target his long-time association with Democratic power broker George Norcross III and his support for several state tax increases.

Two other congressional districts in South Jersey are not listed as competitive districts by Cook Political Report, meaning the 1st District is likely to stay Democratic, while the 2nd is likely to remain Republican.

In the 1st District, Rep. Rob Andrews of Haddon Heights has opted not to run for re-election after 18 years in office in order to wage a primary bid against Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.). Camille Andrews, his wife, is trying to keep the seat in the family. She is facing challenges from Mahdi Ibn-Ziyad of Camden and John Caramanna of Blackwood. On the Republican side, Dale Glading of Barrington is running against Fernando Powers of Blackwood.

In the 2nd Congressional District, seven-term Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-2nd) is expected to overcome a primary contest with Donna Ward, a Ron Paul supporter. Cape May City Council member David Kurkowski is unopposed in the Democratic primary after Jeff Van Drew turned down national party pleas to take on the incumbent just months after he won a state Senate seat.

Joe Donohue may be reached at jdonohue@starledger.com or (609) 989-0208.